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PRIMARY MACROECONOMIC RESEARCH & INTELLIGENCE

AUM AANVIKSHIKI

Independent, data-driven macroeconomic whitepapers exploring capital allocation, monetary cycles, and generational wealth defense.

ABOUT AUM AANVIKSHIKI

Directed by Nirav Panchmatia, AUM AANVIKSHIKI drives primary research into international macroeconomic trends, global monetary architecture, sovereign balance sheets, and strategic commodity cycles.

Designed for institutional allocators, corporate treasuries, family offices, and discerning investors, AUM AANVIKSHIKI translates complex global macro shifts into actionable, stress-tested capital stewardship frameworks.

Featured Topics:Contingency PlanningGold & Central BanksPrivate Credit MarketsSilver & Energy Transition
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RESEARCH PUBLICATIONS

Macroeconomic Research Whitepapers.

Access and download the foundational macroeconomic dossiers published by AUM AANVIKSHIKI. Each report delivers primary data, structural analysis, and strategic allocation implications.

Macro Survival Guide
PDF Available

Contingency Planning for an Uncertain World

CY 2026 — CY 2027 Survival Guide & Capital Preservation

Primary Research Focus:

Geopolitical Flashpoints, De-Dollarisation, US Debt Debasement & Portfolio De-risking

A strategic masterplan addressing escalating global flashpoints (Middle East, South Asia, Russia-Ukraine), BRICS de-dollarisation, $38T US debt debasement, Trump tariffs (145%), and the $4T Yen carry trade time bomb—providing clear action steps for personal, business, and investment portfolio survival.

Key Institutional Takeaways:
Personal & Business Protocol: Maintain 3–6 months physical cash at home, pause aggressive business expansion, and aggressively collect all receivables.
Risk-Off Mandate: In CY 2026–2027, Return OF Capital takes strict precedence over Return ON Capital.
Portfolio De-risking: Exit international equities, private credit, structured products, and reduce illiquid discretionary PMS/AIFs.
Defensive Asset Allocation: 20–35% in Arbitrage Mutual Funds, 25–35% in Gold (SIP/STP), and 5–10% in Silver.
Market Intelligence Report
PDF Available

GOLD: Market Intelligence & Outlook

De-Dollarisation, Central Bank Buying & Price Targets

Primary Research Focus:

Global Central Bank Accumulation, War Premiums & Institutional INR Demand

Primary market intelligence analyzing gold’s historic run (+86.65% 1-yr and +170.69% 2-yr in INR), Wall Street price targets ($5,400–$6,300, UBS bull case $7,200), record central bank accumulation (95% growing reserves), de-dollarization flows, and India-specific demand drivers.

Key Institutional Takeaways:
Consensus Wall Street Targets: J.P. Morgan ($6,300), Wells Fargo ($6,100–$6,300), UBS ($6,200–$7,200), Deutsche Bank ($6,000).
Structural Demand Floor: 95% of central banks actively growing reserves; a 0.5% reallocation from US assets pushes gold to $6,000/oz.
Geopolitical & Rate Catalysts: US–Israel–Iran war risk premium, Federal Reserve rate cut cycle, and $77B+ ETF institutional inflows.
India Demand Catalysts: Rupee depreciation hedge, pension fund entry, 200+ tonnes pledged collateral, and 6% customs duty.
Shadow Banking Analysis
PDF Available

PRIVATE CREDIT: The Rot Is Now Public

Non-Bank Lending, Shadow Banking & Structural Liquidity Gaps

Primary Research Focus:

Direct Lending Risks, Redemption Freezes (Blue Owl & BlackRock) & Credit Traps

A candid investigative briefing unpacking the $2.5T–$3.5T global private credit boom, examining how credit risk migrated from regulated banks to opaque funds, the middle-market borrower profile, and real-world liquidity crises and redemption freezes at Blue Owl (OBDC II) and BlackRock (BREIT).

Key Institutional Takeaways:
Shadow Banking Anatomy: Non-bank direct loans yielding 8–15% to PE-backed mid-market firms ($10M–$100M EBITDA).
Regulatory & Capital Gaps: Credit risk shifted to lightly regulated private funds lacking commercial bank reserve buffers.
Real-World Fiascos: Blue Owl OBDC II redemption halt in late 2025 ($150M surge) and BlackRock BREIT withdrawal gating.
Fatal Liquidity Mismatch: Semi-liquid funds offering daily/monthly withdrawal promises backed by illiquid underlying loans.
Commodity Intelligence Report
PDF Available

SILVER: Higher-Beta Opportunity & Industrial Megatrends

5th Deficit Year, Industrial Dominance & The Jan 2026 Market Crash

Primary Research Focus:

54% Industrial Demand, Solar PVs, Supply Deficits & Market Manipulation Case Studies

Comprehensive dossier evaluating silver’s 5th consecutive annual supply deficit, irreplaceable industrial role in solar photovoltaics and EVs (54% of demand), historic technical breakout, India-specific dynamics (₹2,72,190/kg, +140.93% 1-yr), and an advanced forensic breakdown of the January 30, 2026 market crash.

Key Institutional Takeaways:
Irreplaceable Industrial Dominance: 54% industrial consumption led by Solar PVs (28%), Electronics/AI (19%), and EVs (7%).
Structural Supply Deficit: 5th consecutive deficit year with global mine grades declining 2–3% annually.
Advanced Case Studies: Jan 30 crash (-35%), 300:1 paper-to-physical ratio, JPM short cover, Jane Street SLV flows, Bian Ximing naked short.
India Accumulation Strategy: Accessible entry (₹272/g vs ₹15,268/g for gold), 500GW solar target, and systematic STP/SIP accumulation.
INSTITUTIONAL RESEARCH SERIES

Subsequent Research Dossiers Released By Private Subscription.

The foundational research papers published above remain openly available for public institutional reference. Future in-depth macroeconomic investigations, proprietary risk frameworks, and quarterly sovereign balance sheet intelligence from AUM AANVIKSHIKI will be published exclusively on a private subscription basis.

Private Subscription Access

Register your interest to receive direct access when upcoming institutional research dossiers and private macroeconomic briefings go live.

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RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

Four Pillars of Macroeconomic Inquiry

1. Geopolitical Realignment

Analyzing shifting global trade alliances, supply chain reshoring, and sovereign balance sheet durability.

2. Monetary Debasement

Tracking central bank balance sheet expansion, sovereign debt maturity walls, and hard monetary asset anchors.

3. Alternative Fixed Income

Evaluating private credit structures, illiquidity premiums, and risk-adjusted yield generation for family offices.

4. Strategic Commodities

Deconstructing structural supply deficits across metals powering the global energy transition and industrial automation.

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ContactCEO@niravpanchmatia.in